Central bank gold demand reached 243 tonnes in Q1 2026, a 35% quarter-over-quarter increase from Q4 2025's 207 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data cited by XS.com. This surge occurred despite a 13% decline in total gold demand over the same period, signaling that official institutions are increasingly decoupling from broader market dynamics.
The buying is concentrated among BRICS+ nations and Eastern European central banks. China's People's Bank has been a consistent buyer for 18 consecutive months, while India's RBI added 27 tonnes in Q1 alone. Poland's NBP continued its multi-year accumulation program, reinforcing a trend that began in 2022 after the freezing of Russian central bank reserves.
Full-year 2025 central bank purchases totaled 863 tonnes, well above the 2010-2021 annual average of 473 tonnes and the third consecutive year above 800 tonnes. This steady official-sector demand creates a price floor that persists even when investment demand softens.
The de-dollarization thesis underpinning central bank buying shows no signs of reversing. The US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has declined from 59% in 2020 to approximately 55% in early 2026, with gold absorbing a growing share of the reallocation. For procurement teams, this structural demand means gold is unlikely to sustain extended declines below $4,000/oz.
Central bank buying creates a structural floor that limits downside risk for gold buyers. When negotiating fixed-price contracts for H2 2026, use the $4,000-4,200/oz range as a realistic floor. Consider longer-term fixed-price agreements if suppliers offer discounts near current levels, as the institutional demand imbalance supports higher prices into 2027.