COMEX gold futures for August delivery settled at $4,172.90/oz on Friday, the lowest close in three weeks. The Federal Reserve's June statement maintained a hawkish lean, and the dollar index climbed 1.2% on the week, pressuring all dollar-denominated precious metals.
The $4,200 level had acted as support since June 8. Prices broke below it mid-session Thursday after US initial jobless claims came in below expectations, reinforcing the narrative that the Fed has little reason to ease policy soon.
Gold ETF holdings tracked by Bloomberg declined 8.4 tonnes this week. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) saw net outflows of $420 million, the largest weekly withdrawal since early May. The macro backdrop works against gold in the near term: real rates remain positive, and the market is pricing only one rate cut by December.
Physical demand from central banks continues, but at a slower pace than Q1. The PBOC added 2 tonnes in May, its smallest monthly increase in 18 months. The slower buying cadence removes a price floor that bullion had relied on.
Short-term hedgers should wait for gold to find support near $4,100 before adding coverage. The trend is bearish in the near term, but physical demand from Asian central banks creates a floor. Layered, small-lot purchases on dips below $4,150 offer the best risk-reward.