Gallium has become one of the most strategically contested minor metals. China's 98% share of low-purity gallium production, combined with export controls that escalated from licensing (August 2023) to a full US embargo (December 2024) to a temporary suspension (November 2025-November 2026), has created a two-tier market with Chinese domestic prices well below export prices.
Price action tells the story. Rotterdam gallium peaked at approximately $687/kg in May 2025, more than 150% above pre-control levels. By early 2026, prices eased to $1,500-1,600/kg in China but remained above $2,000/kg in European spot markets. A detailed 2026 market review notes gallium prices rising from $940/kg at start-2025 to roughly $2,269/kg by late April 2026, a 141% increase driven by controls plus demand growth from GaN power semiconductors, EV charging infrastructure, 5G/6G RF components, and advanced LEDs.
The supply bottleneck is real. Primary gallium is a by-product of bauxite refining and alumina production. Expanding gallium output requires either more alumina capacity (unlikely given the global glut) or dedicated processing of red mud (technically feasible but not commercial at scale). China produced an estimated 710 tonnes of low-purity gallium in 2024, of which roughly 80% was destined for export markets now subject to controls. Non-Chinese supply — from Germany, Japan, and South Korea — totals perhaps 100 tonnes annually, all relying on Chinese feedstock or scrap recycling.
Demand is accelerating. The GaN power semiconductor market is projected to grow from $2.5 billion in 2024 to $6.3 billion by 2029, driven by fast-charging adapters, data center power supplies, automotive onboard chargers, and RF front-end modules. Each GaN device uses roughly 0.1-0.5 mg of gallium — not significant per-device, but the aggregate effect of billions of devices adds up. LED manufacturing remains the largest demand segment, consuming roughly 60% of primary gallium, but GaN power is the fastest-growing use case.
The critical question: Will the temporary export suspension be extended? The November 2025 announcement by China's Ministry of Commerce suspending the gallium/germanium US embargo through November 27, 2026 created a brief window of supply relief. Industry analysts expect the suspension will not be extended once it expires, given the trajectory of US-China technology competition. The re-imposition of the embargo would cut non-Chinese gallium availability by an estimated 25-40%, according to USGS modeling.
For comprehensive data and intelligence on gallium and related markets, refer to the Rzzro Intelligence — Critical Minerals and Rzzro Data — Commodity price tracking.
Gallium procurement requires a two-pronged strategy: secure near-term supply through the current suspension window, and invest in non-Chinese supply chains for the post-2026 period. We recommend: (1) contracting Korean and German recyclers for secondary gallium supply at premiums of 10-30% over Chinese domestic prices; (2) evaluating GaN-on-Si vs. GaN-on-SiC substrate tradeoffs that can reduce material intensity; (3) monitoring the suspension expiry as the single most important catalyst for 2027 pricing.