Ferrosilicon – price, supply–demand, June 2026 view • Recent pricing: – Europe/India Q1 2026 prices rose ~5–6% vs Q4 2025 as steel demand and import costs recovered (Netherlands +5.81%, India +5.18%). – Earlier 2025: China faced downward price pressure on weak demand and overcapacity; 2025 prices were “higher in H1, weaker in H2.” • 2026 market balance: – Global ferrosilicon market ~US$11.4–15.7 bn in 2026, low–mid single‑digit CAGR to 2033–34; not a fast‑growth market but structurally tied to steel output. – Asia‑Pacific >60% of demand, ~45%+ share in 2026, anchored in China/India steel, cons
Ferrosilicon – price, supply–demand, June 2026 view • Recent pricing: – Europe/India Q1 2026 prices rose ~5–6% vs Q4 2025 as steel demand and import costs recovered (Netherlands +5.81%, India +5.18%).
– Earlier 2025: China faced downward price pressure on weak demand and overcapacity; 2025 prices were “higher in H1, weaker in H2.” • 2026 market balance: – Global ferrosilicon market ~US$11.4–15.7 bn in 2026, low–mid single‑digit CAGR to 2033–34; not a fast‑growth market but structurally tied to steel output. – Asia‑Pacific >60% of demand, ~45%+ share in 2026, anchored in China/India steel, construction, auto.
– Supply: structural oversupply in China; capacity remains ample but constrained by electricity cost, carbon/energy policies, and CBAM for exports. – 2026 is framed as “seeking a new equilibrium”: supply relatively loose, demand growth slow, prices “stable but weak” overall; no super‑cycle expected. • Key drivers into mid‑2026: – Demand: gradual recovery in global steel (construction, auto, machinery) supports modestly firmer procurement vs 2025 lows, especially in Europe and India.
– Costs: power prices, carbon policy in China (Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, NW provinces) and EU CBAM can tighten export availability or raise delivered cost abruptly. – Trade/logistics: post‑Russia–Ukraine and energy disruptions continue to influence European costs and regional spreads. • Procurement implications (June 2026): – Base case: sideways to mildly firm prices; global supply still adequa
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Ferrosilicon given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.