EU Anti-Dumping Probe Threatens Chinese Aluminum Semis

The European Commission launched a review of the anti-dumping measures on aluminum extrusions from China, originally imposed in October 2021 at rates of 21-32%. The duties are scheduled to expire on October 22, 2026, unless the Commission determines that dumping continues and that expiry would harm EU industry. A decision is expected in Q3.

The stakes are large. EU extrusion demand runs at roughly 1.8 million tonnes per year, with domestic EU producers supplying 1.3 million tonnes and imports covering the remainder. Chinese-origin extrusions accounted for 28% of extrusion imports into the EU in 2025, up from 18% in 2021 before the duties. If duties lapse, Chinese material could capture 35-40% of the EU import market within 12 months, according to European Aluminium.

Chinese aluminum semis exports have been running at record levels. May exports hit 520,000 tonnes of semi-fabricated products, up 8.1% year-on-year. The trajectory suggests 2026 full-year exports could exceed 6 million tonnes, up from 5.4 million tonnes in 2025. Much of this volume is priced 15-25% below comparable European production costs.

European extruders are already feeling the pressure. Two mid-sized extrusion plants in Italy and Poland have reduced shifts. Hydro Aluminium's extrusion division reported a 4% margin decline in Q1 2026, attributing it to Chinese import competition and rising energy costs.

The duty review outcome is binary. If extended: EU extrusion margins stabilize, and Chinese volumes redirect to Southeast Asia and the Middle East. If lapsed: European extrusion prices drop 10-15%, and buyers benefit from lower costs for construction and automotive profiles.