• Price level & direction into mid‑2026 – Forecasts generally see cotton prices subdued vs. past peaks, with only modest upside into 2026. Oxford Economics projects ICE cotton averaging ~66–66.5 cents/lb in 2025–26, constrained by ample supply and weak demand. – The ICAC June 2026 “Cotton This Month” commentary (via IndexBox) pegs Cotlook A at 75–80 c/lb for 2025/26 and 2026/27. Texas Tech/ICAC’s longer‑term outlook expects a gradual recovery, with A‑Index around 83 c/lb in 2026/27. – Some private scenario work (cotcast.ai) is more bearish, suggesting 60 c/lb by end‑2025 and ~57 c/lb by mid‑20
• Price level & direction into mid‑2026 – Forecasts generally see cotton prices subdued vs. past peaks, with only modest upside into 2026. Oxford Economics projects ICE cotton averaging ~66–66.5 cents/lb in 2025–26, constrained by ample supply and weak demand. – The ICAC June 2026 “Cotton This Month” commentary (via IndexBox) pegs Cotlook A at 75–80 c/lb for 2025/26 and 2026/27. Texas Tech/ICAC’s longer‑term outlook expects a gradual recovery, with A‑Index around 83 c/lb in 2026/27.
– Some private scenario work (cotcast.ai) is more bearish, suggesting 60 c/lb by end‑2025 and ~57 c/lb by mid‑2026 if demand stays soft and no major supply shock occurs. ⇒ Baseline consensus: range‑bound to slightly firm vs. early‑2025 lows, roughly mid‑60s to high‑70s c/lb through mid‑2026, with downside if demand underperforms and upside if weather cuts crops. • Global supply fundamentals (2025/26 into 2026/27) – 2025 world production is estimated around 120.1 million bales vs.
mill use 118.9 million; stocks build to ~75.9 million bales, keeping a cap on prices.
Procurement teams should maintain flexible sourcing strategies for Cotton given the evolving market dynamics. Monitor supply-side developments, inventory trends, and demand signals from end-use sectors. Consider layered hedging against price volatility and diversify supplier exposure to manage risk.