LME copper held steady above $13,350 per tonne in the final trading days of June, with the three-month contract posting $13,357.50 on June 29 — a 0.66% daily gain that belied a 6.2% monthly decline from early-June levels above $14,000, according to LME data and TradingEconomics. COMEX copper closed at $6.18 per pound, while SHFE copper settled at ¥104,710 per metric tonne, reflecting Chinese demand that has been partially supported by renewable energy and EV manufacturing but weighed down by ongoing weakness in the country's traditional construction and property sectors.
The price action reflects a market suspended between two narratives. On one side: the structural bull case. Supply disruptions at Grasberg in Indonesia, Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and ongoing operational challenges at Codelco in Chile have kept mined production growth to just 0.9% in 2025, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Treatment and refining charges collapsed to historic lows near zero at the start of 2026, signaling acute concentrate scarcity. S&P Global projects a 2026 average LME price just above $12,100 per tonne, arguing that supply tightness rather than demand growth is the primary price support. J.P. Morgan sees a refined copper shortfall of 330,000 tonnes in 2026. The structural demand story is real too: S&P Global forecasts total copper demand rising from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes by 2040, driven by grid build-out, EVs, and AI data centers.
On the other side: the surplus thesis. Goldman Sachs Research, in its base case published in January 2026, projects LME copper will decline from January's record $13,387 per tonne to roughly $11,000 by year-end. The bank raised its 2026 global surplus forecast to 300,000 tonnes, arguing that the 600,000-tonne surplus recorded in 2025 — the largest since 2009 — combined with high prices dampening demand and boosting scrap supply, will eventually overwhelm the tariff-driven premium. The ICSG flipped its own forecast in April 2026 from an anticipated 150,000-tonne deficit to a 96,000-tonne surplus, citing China's 9% increase in refined output in 2025, equivalent to an extra million tonnes.
The wildcard in every forecast is US tariff policy. Since early 2025, tariff fears have pulled roughly 491,000 tonnes of refined copper into CME warehouses, transforming the US from a minor inventory hub into the dominant location for exchange stocks. The CME-LME arbitrage hit a record $1.30 per pound premium in July 2025 before collapsing when Trump exempted refined copper from tariffs. By early 2026, LME had briefly commanded a premium over CME. Now the market is positioning again: the Commerce Department's Section 232 recommendation on refined copper imports is due today, June 30, 2026. Goldman Sachs's base case assumes a 15% tariff announced mid-2026 and implemented in 2027. Fastmarkets reports that this second cycle of tariff positioning is shorter, tighter, and running directly into warehouse constraints that did not exist during the first wave.
The inventory picture is deceptive. On paper, visible global inventories exceeded 1.3 million tonnes in March 2026 — historically high. But these stocks are overwhelmingly concentrated in US warehouses. Outside the US, inventories are tightening, with LME copper stocks at 336,475 tonnes and declining. The geographic dislocation means the headline inventory number masks a bifurcated market: ample copper in the US, tighter conditions everywhere else. China's bonded warehouse stocks have been drained by the tariff pull, with Reuters reporting Chinese refined copper exports hitting 143,000 tonnes in November 2025 — the second-highest monthly total on record — as Chinese smelters routed metal toward US markets.
Analyst forecasts for full-year 2026 cluster in a wide band. The World Bank projects $9,800 per tonne. Goldman Sachs sees $10,000 to $11,000. Bank of America raised its forecast to roughly $11,313. S&P Global stands at $12,100. The AI model consensus compiled by CopperTalk puts the average at $11,200 to $12,400. No one knows, and the range — $9,800 to $12,400, or 27% wide — is itself the signal. The copper market in mid-2026 is one of the most contested forecasting environments in recent memory.
Today's Commerce Department recommendation on refined copper tariffs is the single most important near-term catalyst for copper pricing. If tariffs on refined copper are announced, expect the CME-LME spread to widen sharply again, with US buyers facing an immediate cost increase of 10-15% on imported cathode. If tariffs are deferred or narrowed, the CME premium will deflate and LME could see a relief rally as the overhang clears. Either way, procurement teams should be positioned. For US buyers: lock in Q3 cathode requirements now, before any tariff announcement. The window between recommendation and implementation could be measured in weeks. For buyers outside the US: the tariff-driven redirection of metal toward the US is draining supply from Asia and Europe. Expect regional premiums to remain elevated even if LME dips. Consider fixing a portion of H2 2026 and Q1 2027 requirements at current LME levels (near $13,300/t), which are below January peaks but still historically elevated. The structural bull case has not gone away — if anything, tariff-driven trade fragmentation makes the long-term supply picture more uncertain. But the near-term risk is that Goldman Sachs is right: a 300,000-tonne surplus plus tariff resolution could push LME below $10,000 by Q4. Hedge, don't gamble.