Fact: Research cited by You.com shows analysts expect a copper supply shortfall of about 491,000 t per year through 2030. That is a medium-term constraint, not a spot-price guarantee.
The near-term picture is softer. Chinese inventories across LME and SHFE-linked channels rose about 56% month-on-month in March 2026, and spot copper has traded at discounts to SHFE futures when restocking demand is weak.
Rzzro view: buyers should not confuse weak China restocking with a solved supply problem. Copper procurement risk is front-loaded in concentrates, smelter margins and policy moves, then passes through to refined metal availability.
Lock coverage in layers. Keep 2-4 months flexible, then add 6-12 months when TC/RCs weaken or smelter cuts appear in weekly market checks.