Total LME copper inventories of 352,150 tons paint a picture of adequate supply — up from roughly 304,000 tons at the start of 2026. But the headline figure masks a sharp geographic imbalance. An estimated 78% of on-warrant copper is sitting in Asian warehouses (Busan, Gwangyang, Kaohsiung, Singapore), while European depots hold under 12,000 tons combined. For European buyers, the LME price is the global price — but the metal is 6,000 miles away.
Canceled warrants — a forward indicator of metal leaving LME warehouses — stood at just 7.8% of total inventory as of the latest report. That's well below the 20–30% levels that typically precede a sharp stock drawdown. The market is not signaling an imminent squeeze. But the concentration risk is real: if European demand picks up in Q3, the physical premium for prompt delivery could spike even as global stocks appear comfortable.
The COMEX copper inventory story is similar. COMEX warehouses held roughly 98,000 short tons at last count, concentrated in Salt Lake City and Tucson. U.S. Midwest delivered premiums have been steady at 6–8 cents/lb over COMEX, but buyers in the Northeast and Southeast face higher all-in costs due to freight and logistics markups from western warehousing hubs.
European and U.S. East Coast buyers should not be lulled by the 352,150-ton headline. If your contract specifies CIF delivery to Rotterdam or Savannah and your supplier sources from Asian LME warehouses, lead times are 6–8 weeks — not the 2–3 weeks you'd expect from regional stocks. Ask your supplier: where is the metal right now? If it's sitting in Busan, build a 4-week buffer into your Q3 delivery schedule. For urgent needs, pay the regional premium for European or COMEX Midwest warranted metal — it's cheaper than a line stoppage.