Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures rose 0.9% to ¥104,620 per metric ton on June 25, defying the broad metals selloff that pushed LME copper down 1.1% and COMEX down 2.7%. The divergence is telling: Chinese physical buyers are stepping in at lower prices while Western financial traders are reducing exposure.
The SHFE-to-LME copper ratio rose to approximately 7.94x, approaching the level that typically incentivizes import activity. China's unwrought copper imports reached roughly 510,000 tonnes in May, up 8% year-over-year, according to customs data. Chinese smelters are producing at near-record rates but the metal is being absorbed by domestic demand rather than exported.
The Yangshan copper premium, a gauge of Chinese import appetite, has softened to around $48 per metric ton from $60 earlier in the month, reflecting the pullback in LME prices. However, this level still indicates healthy import demand -- during the 2024 demand trough, the Yangshan premium fell below $20.
The divergence between SHFE and LME pricing also reflects different drivers. LME copper is being pushed around by dollar strength and macro risk-off positioning. SHFE copper is responding to actual industrial activity: China's grid infrastructure spending rose 12% year-over-year in the first five months of 2026, and EV production continues to grow at double-digit rates.
The SHFE-LME divergence means Asian buyers are already treating this selloff as a buying opportunity. If you’re sourcing copper for delivery in Asia, the relative SHFE strength suggests domestic prices won’t fall as much as LME screens suggest. For Western buyers, the weaker LME is the better entry point — but the window may close if Chinese import demand accelerates.