Copper prices advanced on June 26 with LME three-month closing at $13,287/mt, up $93 (0.7%) from the previous session. COMEX copper gained 2.03% to $6.19/lb, outpacing London as US tariff uncertainty continues to pull metal toward American warehouses.
The rally comes with less than a week before the July 1 tariff review deadline. Market participants are positioning for potential new duties on copper imports, driving a premium in COMEX over LME that has persisted since mid-June. The arb between the two exchanges widened further in Friday’s session.
SHFE copper rose 2.1% to ¥106,510/mt, supported by improving sentiment around Chinese infrastructure spending. China’s State Council signaled additional fiscal measures for Q3, which could boost demand from the construction and power grid sectors. Combined with LME stock draws of 0.83%, the supply side continues to tighten.
On the supply front, Chilean production data for May showed a 3.1% year-on-year decline as aging mines and water constraints limited output. Codelco reported continued operational challenges at its Chuquicamata and El Teniente operations. ICSG data for April indicated a 42,000-tonne refined deficit.
The seven-day trend of -1.8% on LME suggests the rebound is still fragile. Buyers who locked in during the mid-June dip are now watching whether tariff uncertainty extends the rally or whether post-deadline clarity triggers a correction.
With the July 1 tariff deadline approaching, copper buyers should evaluate near-term price risk. The COMEX premium over LME signals US-specific supply concerns. Consider securing Q3 tonnage before the deadline to avoid potential duty-driven cost increases. Monitor Chilean mine output data closely — continued declines could push the refined deficit above 50,000 tonnes in H2.