LME copper three-month prices settled at $13,603/mt on June 14, extending a rally from the prior week's $13,370/mt low. The advance was driven by a convergence of supply-side catalysts and a weakening US dollar.
Trading Economics data shows copper up 35.7% year-on-year despite a 3.1% pullback over the past month. The benchmark CFD tracked $6.43/lb on June 12, with COMEX futures climbing to $6.445/lb in the latest session.
Jefferies now expects copper prices to 'stay elevated for longer than previously anticipated,' citing an average annual supply deficit of 491,000 tonnes through 2030. The slower-than-expected recovery at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine is a key contributor to the structural shortfall.
On trade policy, market participants are pricing in a potential 25% US tariff on refined copper imports expected by mid-2026. Pre-tariff stock-building activity has accelerated copper flows toward US warehouses, tightening availability in other regions.
Goldman Sachs had forecast LME copper to average $10,710/mt in H1 2026, but actual levels above $13,500/mt underscore the magnitude of the supply-driven rally. The bank still sees copper reaching $15,000/mt by 2035.
Procurement teams should secure H2 volumes now. The convergence of structural deficits, tariff-driven arbitrage, and mine recovery delays means spot premiums are likely to widen further. Fixed-price contracts through Q4 2026 offer protection against a break above $14,000/mt.