LME copper traded near $13,540 per tonne ($6.14/lb) on June 26, according to TradingEconomics data tracking the benchmark CFD contract. The metal is down 2.73% over the past month, retreating from the speculative highs that pushed prices to an all-time intraday record of $14,527.50 on January 29. Still, copper remains 21.1% above year-ago levels, reflecting a market that has fundamentally repriced from the $8,000-9,000/t range that prevailed through much of 2023 and early 2024. The June pullback has brought prices closer to the $13,300 level recorded by MacroMicro on June 23, suggesting a consolidation phase rather than a rout.
The primary weight on copper prices has been the mounting evidence of near-term surplus. Reuters reported in early April that global exchange stocks closed the first quarter at just over 1.4 million tonnes, a multi-year high. The International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) April 2026 revision flipped its earlier October 2025 forecast of a 150,000-tonne deficit to a 96,000-tonne surplus, driven by stronger-than-expected refined production and a 5.8% increase in scrap-based secondary output. The preliminary 2025 surplus came in at 380,000 tonnes, far exceeding earlier estimates. This inventory cushion has dampened the supply-crisis narrative that drove the January price spike.
On the demand side, China's manufacturing sector continues to expand but is losing momentum. The Caixin/S&P manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in May from 52.2 in April, with new orders and output moderating. Power grid investment, the single largest copper demand driver in China, surged 37% year-on-year in Q1 2026, and EV manufacturing continues to pull copper through the supply chain. However, weakness in traditional construction and property sectors has partially offset these gains. Analysts at Shanghai Metals Market note that the Q2 smelter maintenance cycle will temporarily constrain refined output, providing some price support.
The analyst community is unusually divided. JP Morgan projects a refined copper deficit of 330,000 tonnes in 2026 with an average price of $12,075/t and a Q2 peak near $12,500/t. The bank raised its long-term copper forecast to $12,000/t, citing structural supply gaps and an estimated $150 billion capex requirement to bring 30+ major projects online. In contrast, Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 490,000-tonne surplus in 2026 with an average price of $12,650/t, though it acknowledges that tariff-related stockpiling in the US is diverting metal from other markets. The fundamental disagreement is about whether Chinese demand growth of 2.5-3% can absorb the wave of new mine supply from the DRC, Chile, and Peru.
The US Section 232 copper tariff investigation remains the single most important policy variable. Goldman's base case assumes a 15% tariff announced mid-2026 and implemented in 2027. Any acceleration of that timeline, or a higher rate (25% has been floated), would pull more metal into US warehouses and tighten availability elsewhere. The June 30 Commerce Department review is the next catalyst. Separately, China's ban on sulphuric acid exports, if sustained through year-end, puts 200,000 tonnes of Chilean copper production at risk, equivalent to roughly 1% of global supply.
The forward outlook hinges on whether surplus metal in exchange warehouses gets absorbed by seasonal demand recovery in H2. LME cash-to-three-month spreads have moved into contango, signaling no immediate physical tightness. But the structural underinvestment in new mines remains unresolved. JP Morgan estimates the market could face a 2 million tonne supply gap by 2030 and 8 million tonnes by 2035 if current project pipelines are not accelerated.
For procurement teams, the current price level near $13,500/t is elevated by historical standards but may represent a relative buying opportunity if structural deficit forecasts materialize. The divergence between analyst camps means hedging strategy cannot rely on a single consensus view. Buyers with Q3 contract negotiations approaching should secure price ceilings through call options rather than locking fixed prices at current levels, given the bearish inventory signal. Those with exposure to Chilean-origin copper should assess the sulphuric acid supply risk and identify alternative origin material. US-based buyers face the additional tariff risk: accelerating Q3 shipments ahead of any Section 232 announcement could save 15-25% on landed costs. The next 30 days — between the Commerce Department review and Q2 earnings season — will set the tone for H2 contract negotiations.
For procurement teams, the current price level near $13,500/t is elevated by historical standards but may represent a relative buying opportunity if structural deficit forecasts materialize. The divergence between analyst camps means hedging strategy cannot rely on a single consensus view. Buyers with Q3 contract negotiations approaching should secure price ceilings through call options rather than locking fixed prices at current levels, given the bearish inventory signal. Those with exposure to Chilean-origin copper should assess the sulphuric acid supply risk and identify alternative origin material. US-based buyers face the additional tariff risk: accelerating Q3 shipments ahead of any Section 232 announcement could save 15-25% on landed costs. The next 30 days, between the Commerce Department review and Q2 earnings season, will set the tone for H2 contract negotiations.