LME copper is trading in the mid-$13,000s per tonne range on June 10, easing slightly from early-June highs but still up ~29% year-on-year. The market is in its most concentrated waiting period of 2026: the US Commerce Department's June 30 deadline to deliver a refined copper tariff recommendation to the White House.
The expectation of new tariffs has already distorted global trade flows. US refined copper imports doubled year-on-year in Q1 2026 to approximately 533,000 tonnes, with metal diverted from Chinese bonded warehouses and European hubs to capture the COMEX premium. That premium now exceeds $500 per tonne over LME cash, reflecting the cost and risk of shipping metal into the US before potential tariff imposition.
Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories fell to their lowest level of the year in early June, signaling resilient Chinese physical demand despite the ongoing trade diversion. Chinese copper semis imports fell 7% in the first five months of 2026, while aluminum semis exports rose 10.4%, per General Administration of Customs data.
Goldman Sachs Research projects LME copper averaging $10,710/t in H1 2026, with a full-year range of $10,000-11,000/t once tariff uncertainty resolves. The bank expects a global copper surplus of approximately 300 kilotonnes in 2026, driven by moderating Chinese demand growth and new mine supply. However, the tariff-driven stockpiling dynamic has pushed actual prices well above these forecasts so far this year.
On the macro side, strong US jobs data has strengthened expectations for a hawkish Federal Reserve, supporting the dollar and capping copper's upside. Fed rate cut expectations have been pushed to late 2026 or early 2027, weighing on sentiment for industrial metals priced in dollars.
The June 30 review is the single most important near-term catalyst. A definitive tariff decision at that point should signal the end of US stockpiling and allow LME prices to normalize toward fundamental levels. A delay beyond 2026 would be bearish, as the probability of tariffs reduces and focus shifts to the well-supplied global market.
The next three weeks present a binary risk for copper buyers. If tariffs are confirmed, the COMEX premium will narrow but LME prices could ease as stockpiling unwinds. If tariffs are delayed or softened, expect a sharper correction. Lock in H2 2026 volumes now if you can tolerate the premium, or wait for the post-June 30 rebalancing if your supply chain can absorb 2-3 weeks of price risk.