LME-registered copper inventories have held below 150,000 tonnes throughout June 2026, a far cry from the 210,000-tonne peak seen in mid-2024. This 29% decline in visible stocks is one of the clearest signals that the physical copper market remains tight, even as futures prices retreat on macro concerns.
Cancelled warrants -- metal earmarked for withdrawal -- stand at roughly 12% of total LME stocks, suggesting steady physical offtake. Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories have also been declining, falling to levels that imply Chinese buyers are drawing down warehouse stocks rather than importing at a premium.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) forecasts a 150,000-200,000 tonne refined copper deficit for 2026, driven by constrained mine supply growth and steady demand from electrification and grid infrastructure. The ICSG noted in its June update that mine production grew only 1.2% year-over-year in Q1 2026, below the 2.5% needed to balance the market.
Low inventories don't prevent short-term price drops -- copper has fallen 6.5% from its April high -- but they do limit downside. In 2024, when stocks climbed above 200,000 tonnes, copper fell to $8,100. With stocks 29% lower today, a repeat of that decline is unlikely.
Low exchange inventories give copper a harder floor than the macro sellers assume. For procurement teams, this means price dips are likely shallower and shorter than in 2024. If you need Q4 copper coverage, buying into this selloff — when others are panicking about the dollar — is historically the right move. The physical market is tight; the paper market is nervous. Trust the physical signal.