LME copper closed at $13,287/mt on June 27, extending its consolidation in the $13,000–13,300 band that has held since the early-January record of $13,270/t. COMEX copper added 1.2% to $6.14/lb, while SHFE surged 2.1% to CNY 106,510/mt as Chinese traders returned from a shortened trading week with fresh buying interest tied to infrastructure stimulus expectations.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) now projects a refined copper surplus of 209,000t in 2026, down from 289,000t in its previous forecast. Mine output rose only about 1% in 2025, far below the 3–4% growth rates that analysts at CRU and Fastmarkets had anticipated entering the year. The concentrate market remains exceptionally tight — spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) are near zero, forcing Chinese smelters to rely on imported blister and scrap to maintain run rates.
On the demand side, China's State Grid and renewable energy buildout continue to anchor consumption. Power grid investment rose 18% year-on-year in the first five months of 2026 according to China Electricity Council data, translating to strong orders for copper wire rod and cable. Outside China, European copper demand has been flat, with construction weakness offsetting gains in grid and EV charging infrastructure. US demand remains supported by data center construction and manufacturing reshoring.
The contrast between the concentrate market (tight) and the refined market (surplus) defines copper's current equilibrium. JP Morgan analysts expect LME copper to average $12,800/t in H2 2026, citing a “looming surplus that keeps a ceiling on prices even as mine supply disappoints.” Goldman Sachs takes a more bullish view, forecasting $13,500/t average for the second half, arguing that low visible inventories and Chinese restocking will absorb the surplus. The next catalyst: China's Q3 infrastructure spending data due in mid-July.
The copper market is structurally bifurcated. Concentrate buyers face a brutal sellers' market — TCs at near-zero mean smelters have no margin cushion, and physical premiums for cathode remain elevated. For refined copper buyers, the ICSG surplus forecast for H2 2026 suggests modest softening ahead. Lock in Q3 volumes at current LME levels if your contracts are index-linked. If you buy cathode on a premium basis, negotiate now — European and US premiums remain $140–180/t above LME and could tighten further if China's grid spending accelerates into the summer construction season.