LME three-month copper settled at $13,530.50/mt on Friday, extending the week's losses. The market opened Monday at $13,714 and drifted lower through the session, unable to find a bid above $13,600 after Wednesday's US industrial production miss.
COMEX copper for July delivery fell to $6.337/lb, a 0.59% decline on the session. The premium over LME pricing narrowed as COMEX warehouse stocks hit fresh highs, easing the arbitrage pressure that had kept US prices elevated through May.
The macro picture darkened this week. The Fed's June statement maintained a hawkish tilt, and the US dollar index strengthened 1.2% on the week, pressuring all dollar-denominated commodities. European manufacturing PMIs missed expectations, while China's industrial output data showed only marginal improvement.
LME copper inventories rose for the fourth consecutive week, reaching levels not seen since early 2024. The visible stock buildup, concentrated in Asian warehouses, points to weak physical demand from the Chinese semi-fabrication sector.
The support at $13,500 is the critical level to watch. A break below that opens the path to $13,200, where the 200-day moving average sits. On the upside, resistance at $13,800 requires a catalyst such as fresh Chinese stimulus or a supply disruption.
Procurement teams should extend coverage cautiously below $13,500. Near-term buying is best layered on dips to $13,200 rather than chasing the market at current levels. Fixed-price contracts with quarterly repricing provide downside protection if LME copper breaks lower into H2.