COMEX copper fell to $6.1465/lb on June 24, extending a three-session decline that has now erased nearly 9% from the late-May peak above $6.70. The selloff is largely technical: managed-money net long positions on COMEX had reached 18-month highs during the May rally, and the unwind accelerated this week as momentum signals flipped bearish.
The LME contract showed more resilience. Three-month copper held at $13,642/mt with the cash-to-3M spread at a $70 backwardation — cash metal trading at a premium to forward delivery. That backwardation tells you physical copper is tighter than the 352,150 tons in LME warehouses would suggest. Much of that inventory is tied up in financing deals or earmarked for delivery, leaving only a fraction freely available.
SHFE copper bucked the COMEX trend, rising 0.94% to ¥104,620/mt ($14,370/mt equivalent). The SHFE-LME arbitrage window opened slightly in favor of imports after the COMEX-driven selloff widened the Shanghai premium. China's State Grid plans to invest $105 billion in transmission infrastructure in 2026 — a 9% increase year-over-year — which continues to underpin copper cable demand.
ICSG data for Q1 2026 showed the refined copper market in a 62,000-ton deficit. Mine production grew only 1.2% year-over-year, constrained by lower grades in Chile and disruptions in Peru. Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) for spot copper concentrate have collapsed to $8-12/dry metric ton, down from $80/t in early 2025 — the clearest signal that the concentrate market is structurally short.
The macro picture is mixed. A stronger US dollar index at 104.2 is a headwind for dollar-denominated metals, and US ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.7 in May signaled contraction for the third straight month. But eurozone PMI improved to 47.3, and China's official manufacturing PMI ticked up to 50.5, moving back into expansion territory.
COMEX copper at $6.15/lb is the lowest since mid-May. For buyers on COMEX-linked contracts, this is a near-term reprieve after the May spike. But concentrate TC/RCs at $8-12/t signal that the smelter pipeline is starved — refined supply will tighten by Q4 regardless of where COMEX trades today. Lock in Q4 volumes now while premiums are under pressure from the macro selloff. LME cash backwardation means physical availability is already tightening.