The tariff premium that propelled COMEX copper to a Q2 high of $6.65/lb is now unwinding as the market prices in a post-deadline normalization. The June 14 tariff review deadline is widely expected to result in either an exemption extension for copper or a phased implementation, reducing the urgency for accelerated imports.
LME copper held firmer at $13,716/mt, with the COMEX-LME arb narrowing from over $600/t in May to approximately $200/t currently. The narrowing arb signals that the temporary stockpiling demand has largely been satisfied.
SHFE copper edged 0.01% lower to 102,800 CNY/mt. Chinese refined copper imports surged through April and May as traders front-loaded shipments ahead of potential tariff changes, but early June data suggests import volumes are now declining.
The monthly average for June stands at $6.41/lb, still well above Q1 2026 levels but trending lower from May’s average of $6.26/lb. Q2 2026 average of $6.13/lb represents a 6% increase over Q1 2026’s $5.79/lb.
Procurement teams should expect the tariff premium to fully dissipate through July. Spot purchases can be delayed 1-2 weeks to capture lower pricing. For Q3 contracts, consider fixed-price structures rather than M+1 quotes to avoid paying a fading premium. Monitor the June 14 tariff announcement closely.