COMEX copper retreated 1.64% on June 19 to settle at $6.375/lb, pulling back from the May record high of $6.71/lb. The decline comes against record COMEX inventories of 548,000 tonnes — a level that would normally signal oversupply but here reflects tariff hedging by US importers.
Tariff uncertainty has distorted the US copper market. Importers have been stockpiling metal in COMEX warehouses to avoid potential tariff exposure on future imports. The result: record on-warrant inventory that technically caps near-term upside, even as underlying physical demand remains stable.
Outside the US, the picture is tighter. LME copper inventories outside China have fallen below 100,000 tonnes. Treatment charges remain negative — below $0/lb — meaning smelters are paying a premium for concentrate. The real constraint is concentrate availability, not demand.
Chinese demand is holding steady. SHFE copper rose 1.56% to 102,660 CNY/t, reflecting stable domestic consumption across power grid investment and manufacturing. The broader narrative — structural copper deficit driven by electrification and AI infrastructure — remains intact, even if COMEX has taken a breather.
The COMEX pullback and record inventories create a tactical buying window. Physical copper outside the US remains tight. Use any dip below $6.25/lb COMEX or $13,500/mt LME to extend coverage into Q4. The structural deficit thesis hasn't changed. This is a position-driven correction, not a demand collapse.