China’s refined copper imports reached an estimated 380,000 tonnes in May, the highest monthly volume since Q1 2024. The surge was driven by front-running behavior ahead of tariff deadlines and restocking by fabricators who had drawn down inventories during Q1.
However, bonded warehouse inventories in Shanghai are now at 285,000 tonnes, up from 180,000 tonnes in early April. The rising visible stocks indicate that the additional import volumes are not being fully absorbed by end-user demand.
Domestic cathode premiums have softened to $45-55/t over LME cash, down from $85-95/t in March. The narrowing premium reflects adequate supply availability and suggests fabricators are now well-stocked.
Smelters in China continue to operate near capacity, with the monthly output estimate for May at 980,000 tonnes. Treatment charges (TCs) remain depressed at $8-12/t, reflecting ongoing concentrate market tightness.
The stockpiling cycle is peaking. Expect import volumes to decline 15-20% in June, which will reduce the global copper surplus. Buyers should secure H2 volumes now before the post-tariff supply normalization reduces spot availability. The current bonded stock overhang provides a short-term buffer for spot purchases.