Copper's long-term demand story is intact despite near-term tariff noise and a projected 300-kilotonne global surplus in 2026. The structural drivers — AI data center buildout, grid electrification, renewable energy expansion, and defense spending — are accelerating, not slowing.
Goldman Sachs Research projects LME copper will reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035, well above consensus market forecasts. The bank's thesis rests on grid and power infrastructure investment of approximately $400 billion per year through 2030, combined with AI data center demand that consumes 5-8 kg of copper per kilowatt of capacity — roughly three times the copper intensity of traditional data centers.
Supply constraints reinforce the bull case. Global copper mine supply has struggled to grow, with declining ore grades at major operations in Chile and Peru, permitting delays for new projects, and tighter environmental regulations. Codelco is grappling with sulfuric acid supply constraints that limit its refining capacity and challenge its cost-reduction campaign.
The energy transition alone requires significant copper: each electric vehicle contains approximately 80 kg of copper (four times an ICE vehicle), and each onshore wind turbine requires 4-7 tonnes. Global solar installations, which grew 40% year-on-year in 2025, use approximately 5 tonnes of copper per megawatt.
The June 30 tariff decision creates a near-term overhang, but most analysts see it as a timing issue, not a structural demand destroyer. Even under Goldman Sachs' base case of tariffs phasing in at 15% in 2027 and 30% in 2028, LME prices remain historically elevated. The question is whether they trade at $13,000/t or $11,000/t, not whether they return to pre-2024 levels.
The structural bull case for copper means long-term procurement strategies should prioritize contract coverage and relationship stability with suppliers, not spot-market timing. Build multi-year offtake agreements where possible. The tariff-driven correction, if it comes post-June 30, may be the best buying opportunity of 2026 — prepare a bid strategy for a potential dip to $11,000-12,000/t.