Chinese refined lead exports totaled 85,000 tonnes in the January-May 2026 period, up 12% from 76,000t in the same period of 2025. The sustained export flow confirms that China's lead market is well-supplied from both primary concentrate imports and secondary recycling, generating surplus for international markets. Monthly export volumes averaged 17,000t, with May alone at 18,500t.
Destination markets are concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. Vietnam imported 22,000t of Chinese lead in the period, followed by Thailand (15,000t) and Malaysia (11,000t). In the Mediterranean, Turkish importers took 14,000t, and Egyptian importers 8,000t. These markets lack significant domestic primary lead production and depend on imports for battery manufacturing feedstock.
The Chinese export flow has contributed to LME stock accumulation. LME lead inventories at 301,950t include significant volumes of Chinese-origin refined metal. A notable portion of the LME inventory sits in Asian locations: Busan (82,000t), Singapore (45,000t), and Johor (38,000t). LME lead cash-to-three-month contango stands at $8/t, signaling adequate near-term supply.
European lead import demand is steady. Europe imports approximately 150,000t/year of refined lead from non-EU sources, primarily Kazakhstan and Russia. The ongoing geopolitical situation means some European buyers are diversifying away from Russian-origin lead, creating incremental demand for Chinese and Australian material. European lead premiums sit at $150-180/t over LME cash, stable since Q1.
The export picture reinforces the medium-term bearish outlook. Chinese lead surplus is structural: domestic production capacity exceeds domestic consumption by roughly 300,000t/year, and that gap is growing as battery recycling expands. LME lead is unlikely to sustain prices above $2,100/t without a significant supply disruption or a weaker Chinese currency narrowing export economics.
Chinese lead exports provide a reliable supply source for buyers in Southeast Asia and the Mediterranean. For European buyers, the contango structure means delayed purchasing is cheaper — spot premiums are stable. The main risk is a sudden Chinese export tax change, but there is no signal of that. For North American buyers, the domestic secondary market is the largest supply source and well-supplied.