Cadmium sits at the intersection of two structural trends: the zinc smelter economics that produce it as a by-product, and the CdTe (cadmium-tellurium) thin-film solar sector that consumes roughly 25% of global output. The result is a market where supply cannot respond to demand signals, creating periodic tightness even when headline prices appear modest.
Supply is a function of zinc, not cadmium demand. Cadmium is produced exclusively as a by-product of zinc refining — roughly 3-4 kg of cadmium per tonne of zinc. Global refined cadmium output sits at approximately 29,000 tonnes per year. China produces roughly 35% of global supply, followed by South Korea (25%), Japan (12%), and Kazakhstan (8%). The only lever for supply growth is zinc smelter throughput, which has been constrained by concentrate tightness, environmental shutdowns, and power curtailments in China.
Demand is bifurcated. Battery applications (Ni-Cd batteries for industrial backup and power tools) have been in structural decline, displaced by lithium-ion. But this decline is being offset by growth in CdTe photovoltaics. First Solar, the dominant CdTe module manufacturer, has announced capacity expansions to 25 GW by 2027, up from approximately 16 GW in 2025. Each GW of CdTe capacity consumes roughly 45 tonnes of cadmium, meaning First Solar alone will require about 1,100 tonnes annually by 2027 — roughly 4% of global supply. Pigments, coatings, and stabilizers account for the remaining demand base.
Price outlook. Cadmium prices have trended steadily higher from below $1.00/lb in 2020 to the current $1.80-2.20/lb range. The by-product supply floor means prices cannot easily fall below zinc smelter breakeven levels. The growing solar bid creates upside potential toward $3.00/lb by 2028, but the small market size (roughly $500 million) means large price swings can occur on modest demand shifts.
Critical mineral recognition. The US 2025 Draft Critical Minerals List proposes adding cadmium as a critical mineral, reflecting its PV supply chain role. This designation opens access to DOE loan programs and DOD stockpile funding, but does not immediately increase physical supply.
For comprehensive data and intelligence on cadmium and related markets, refer to the Rzzro Intelligence — Battery & Critical Minerals and Rzzro Data — Commodity price tracking.
Procurement of cadmium must account for its by-product supply dynamics. Unlike mined commodities, cadmium supply cannot increase even if prices rise — it is capped by zinc smelter throughput. For buyers exposed to CdTe solar manufacturing or Ni-Cd battery production, we recommend term contracts with Korean and Japanese refiners as the most reliable non-Chinese supply source. Budget range: $1.80-2.50/lb for 2026.