Aluminum's technical range is clear. SMM and ALCircle placed LME aluminum in a $3,400-$3,650/t band in early June, while SHFE aluminum traded in the CNY 24,350-25,000/t range. LME aluminum has outperformed SHFE in recent weeks.
That spread points to an ex-China supply story rather than a China demand story. Gulf smelter disruptions and Hormuz shipping risk are supporting LME prices, while Chinese ingot destocking remains modest. The market is not short of narratives; it is short of incremental metal.
For procurement, the range creates a disciplined hedge window. Buying near the lower band reduces margin risk. Chasing the upper band increases exposure to a profit-taking move unless the supply shock worsens.
Use $3,400/mt as an add-coverage trigger and $3,650/mt as a take-profit or renegotiation trigger. Keep physical suppliers on weekly allocation updates.