A June 1, 2026 proclamation adjusted US Section 232 tariffs on aluminum, steel, and copper, with changes effective June 8 through end-2027. The adjustments alter the tariff base for aluminum derivative products, increasing the effective duty burden on semi-fabricated and finished aluminum goods entering the US market.
The US Midwest premium has responded by widening to approximately $0.35-0.40 per pound, reflecting both the tariff adjustments and the broader tightness in global aluminum supply. This premium represents the additional cost buyers pay above LME cash for physical delivery to the US Midwest market.
Trade flows are adjusting accordingly. Metal previously destined for European or Asian markets is being redirected to capture the US premium, tightening supply in those regions and pushing up their regional premiums. The EU duty unpaid premium has risen to approximately $300-350/t.
Canada, the largest foreign supplier of aluminum to the US, faces continued uncertainty under the tariff regime. While some Canadian aluminum enters duty-free under USMCA rules, derivative products face the full Section 232 tariff, creating incentives for Canadian producers to shift export composition toward primary metal rather than semi-fabricated products.
The tariff adjustments compound the existing supply tightness from China's production cap and low LME inventories. For European and Asian buyers, the tariffs create a two-layer squeeze: direct tariff costs on US-bound shipments, plus secondary tightness from supply diversion.
The tariff-driven regional premium divergence is real and widening. If you're buying for US delivery, lock in Midwest premium levels now — they are unlikely to narrow before year-end. European and Asian buyers should expect higher duty-unpaid premiums as supply diverts. Consider Canadian suppliers under USMCA for the most favorable tariff treatment on primary metal.