LME-registered aluminum inventories stood at approximately 335,000 tonnes as of late April 2026, well below the historical norm of 800,000 to 1,200,000 tonnes. At current production rates, this represents roughly 1.5 days of global primary output — a level that leaves the market acutely sensitive to any supply disruption.
The headline stock figure overstates available supply. A large share of LME stocks is Russian metal, meaning the pool of freely tradeable, non-Russian material for Western and neutral buyers is significantly smaller than the aggregate suggests. Analysis by S&P Global and the World Bank both flag this distortion.
China's self-imposed 45-million-tonne cap on primary aluminum production continues to constrain global supply. As China approaches this ceiling, room for new output is limited. Environmental and energy policies have compounded the constraint, with smelter shutdowns linked to prolonged energy crises in several regions.
Indonesia is ramping new primary capacity, adding 705,000 tonnes to reach total output of ~1.4 million tonnes. However, analysts at AL Circle and S&P Global expect this expansion will be insufficient to rebalance the market before late 2026 at the earliest.
The Q2 2026 target of $3,643/t implies continued momentum. Some analysts now discuss scenarios above $4,000/t if Middle East supply disruptions via the Strait of Hormuz persist, with Argus reporting that shipping disruption has already cut deliveries from regional producers.
Buyers should lock in H2 2026 volumes now. With stocks at 1.5 days of global consumption, any supply disruption will trigger sharp spot price moves. The effective supply is even tighter when Russian metal concentration is factored in. Consider extending contract durations to 6-9 months to hedge against inventory-driven volatility.