LME aluminum closed at $3,405/mt on June 22, a marginal $5 gain on the week. The metal has been stuck in a $3,350–$3,450 range since late May, with LME warehouse inventories of 315,300 tons acting as a persistent ceiling. Every rally toward $3,450 has been met with seller interest — and every dip toward $3,350 has found support from Chinese restocking and European physical premiums.
The June monthly average of $3,570/mt is down 2.74% from May's $3,670, continuing a gradual erosion that started in April when U.S. aluminum tariffs on Canadian imports were expanded. The 10% tariff on primary aluminum from Canada — which supplies roughly 60% of U.S. consumption — has created a bifurcated market: U.S. Midwest delivered premiums have risen to $0.19–0.21/lb ($418–463/mt) above LME, while ex-U.S. premiums remain in the $160–200/mt range.
On the supply side, Chinese aluminum production hit a record 37.2 million tons annualized in May, with Yunnan smelters running at full capacity after hydropower restrictions eased. This flood of metal is keeping a lid on Asian premiums even as European and North American markets tighten. The net effect: aluminum is cheap at the LME level but expensive to actually get delivered where it's needed.
Aluminum at $3,405/mt LME is not your real price — your delivered cost includes the regional premium, which varies wildly. U.S. buyers are paying $3,823–3,868/mt all-in (LME + Midwest premium). European buyers are at $3,565–3,605/mt. Asian buyers at $3,465–3,505/mt. The gap between U.S. and Asian delivered aluminum is $350–400/mt — that's a sourcing opportunity if your supply chain can route through non-tariff origins. Check whether your contracts let you flex origin within the spec. If you're locked into Canadian supply, the premium is structural for 2026.