Aluminum is still trading with a geopolitical premium, but the market is no longer moving in a straight line. Rzzro's LME aluminum read is $3,489/mt, while the COMEX proxy sits at $3,539/mt after a 6.37% drop.
The supply premium comes from the Gulf. Research sources cite force majeure and shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, with EGA's flagship smelter expected to need up to a year to return to full capacity. ALBA and Qatalum disruptions have also tightened contracted supply into multiple regions.
The pullback does not remove the procurement risk. LME aluminum stocks have fallen to about 338,000 tonnes, and analysts now see a much smaller 2026 surplus than earlier estimates. Buyers are paying for optionality while waiting for the next physical allocation signal.
Keep a covered position for Q3 requirements. If LME aluminum breaks below $3,350/mt, add coverage; if it retests $3,650/mt, protect margin with formula-based contract clauses.