Guinea announced controls on bauxite exports starting June, further tightening the raw-material side of the aluminum supply chain. The West African nation is the world's largest bauxite exporter and supplies approximately 70% of China's bauxite imports. The move adds to a growing list of supply-side interventions in critical mineral supply chains.
China's aluminum smelters face a double squeeze: bauxite from Guinea is the primary feedstock for Chinese alumina refineries, and any restriction on exports will directly impact production costs and availability. Chinese alumina prices have already been elevated as smelters scramble to secure alternative sources from Australia and Indonesia, though both have limited spare capacity to replace Guinea's volumes.
The export controls come as the global aluminum market is already in its tightest condition in years. LME stocks have drained from nearly 500,000 tonnes in January to around 344,000 tonnes. Combined with European smelter curtailments and the Gulf supply shock from the Hormuz closure, the aluminum market faces a structural deficit that could persist into 2027.