Chinese exports of semi-fabricated aluminum products surged to 980,000t in May, a record monthly volume that has rippled through global aluminum markets. The 18% year-on-year increase was driven by extrusions (up 22%), aluminum sheet (up 15%), and aluminum foil (up 12%). Chinese fabricators are pricing at levels that undercut local producers by $100-200/t in most markets.
The export wave has widened regional price disparities. European spot premiums have fallen 20% from April levels. Asian premiums are testing $100/t, the lowest since 2024. Only the US Midwest premium has held, supported by the Section 232 tariff that effectively blocks Chinese semi-fabricated products from the US market.
EU aluminum industry associations have escalated their response. Industry groups in Germany, France, and Italy have submitted preliminary data to the European Commission arguing that the import surge constitutes material injury. A formal anti-dumping investigation could be opened in Q3 2026, with provisional duties potentially applied within 9 months.
The export strategy reflects China's broader industrial policy shift toward higher-value processing. Primary aluminum production in China grew 4.2% year-on-year in May to 3.7 million tonnes, and the additional metal is being transformed into semi-fabricated products for export rather than consumed domestically.
Chinese semi-fabricated export volumes are the dominant factor driving global premium compression. For buyers, this creates opportunity. Offshore aluminum purchases should factor in further premium erosion, especially in Europe. Watch for EU anti-dumping filings — if duties are imposed, European premiums will rebound sharply as supply re-routes. Consider splitting coverage between offshore and domestic sources.