Thesis: WTI crude at $85.10/bbl is holding a war premium of roughly $20 over pre-conflict fair value, one week after re-escalation lifted prices 8.9% off the Aug 7 close of $78.18. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed on day 176 - IMF PortWatch counted 1 commercial transit on Aug 16 against a 73-per-day norm - and Iran declared Aug 22 the strait stays closed until US behavior changes. US commercial crude built +4.4M bbl to 428.8M yet Cushing drew to 21.3M bbl, 28% of working capacity. IEA doubled its 3Q26 deficit estimate to 1.8 mb/d while cutting 2026 demand to -1.6 mb/d; managed money holds just 4.6% of open interest net long, so the rally is commercial-led. EIA base case: Brent $85 in 3Q26 easing to $69 by 2027. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE - hold 40-50% hedged, layer dips at $76-78 and $70-72, cap upside at $90, defer 2027 coverage.