Thesis: WTI crude at $81.86/bbl is pinned in a conflict-driven $80-92 band, 27.5% below the April 7 war-spike high of $112.95 but 42.8% above the 2025 close, as Strait of Hormuz re-escalation offset the June US-Iran memorandum. Three ADNOC-operated tankers were attacked in 48 hours on August 13-15, EIA raised its 3Q26 Brent forecast $11 to $85/b, and global inventories are still drawing 3.8 mb/d with shut-ins at 5.5 mb/d. The bearish counterweight is demand destruction: IEA cut 2026 demand to -1.6 mb/d, OPEC cut its forecast a fourth time, and US products supplied fell 2.1% YoY. EIA's base case sees Brent at $78/b in 4Q26 and $69 in 2027 as a 4.7 mb/d surplus builds - if a US-Iran deal lands, WTI tests $65-72; if attacks escalate to sinkings, WTI retests $90-110. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE - hedge 40-50% of near-term volume, layer dips at $76-78 and $70-72, cap upside at $90, defer 2027 coverage.