Thesis: WTI crude at $77.85/bbl has settled into a $75-80 consolidation band, 31% below the April 7 war-spike high of $112.95, as the market prices the shift from Hormuz risk premium to supply normalization. OPEC+ completed its 1.65 mb/d voluntary cut rollback on August 2 with a sixth consecutive 188 kb/d increase for September, and delegates expect quotas to hold steady through Q4. EIA projects Brent falling to $70/b by 4Q26 and a global surplus of +2.7 mb/d in 4Q26, +5.0 mb/d in 2027 as shut-in Middle East crude returns. The bear case is well advanced, but Iran-Oman talks on Hormuz traffic remain unresolved — Qeshm Island explosions and an ADNOC tanker attack on Aug 9 keep a residual risk premium under $80. Cushing at 21.0M bbl (27.6% of capacity) after a 2.4M build no longer provides tank-bottom support. Procurement posture: OPPORTUNISTIC — layer hedges at $72-75, cap upside at $85, avoid chasing strength into the Aug 11 STEO and Aug 12 IEA/OPEC report window.