INTELLIGENCE REPORT

WTI Crude Intelligence Report

August 3, 2026 · Intelligence Report · WTI Crude (NYMEX CL=F)
BUYER: OPPORTUNISTIC

Thesis: WTI crude at $79.50/bbl has corrected -6.11% from $84.67 as OPEC+ completed its 1.65 mb/d voluntary cut rollback on August 2, approving a final 188 kb/d increase for September and pausing further output hikes through Q4. The market is repricing from war-risk premiums toward supply-normalization fundamentals, with US production at record 13.8 mb/d and Hormuz flows partially recovering. Cushing at 18.6M bbl near tank-bottom provides a physical floor. The Iran war continues (US strikes, Hormuz contested) but the risk premium is compressing. Procurement posture: OPPORTUNISTIC — prepare layered hedges at $75-80; expect a final washout toward $70-75 before strategic re-entry.

WTI CL=F
$79.50
$/bbl · August 3, 2026
Daily Change
-6.11%
-$5.17 vs prev close
YTD
+38.7%
since Jan 1, 2026
OPEC+ Sep Hike
188 kb/d
final voluntary cut rollback
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In-text verification labels: 17 (FACT: 12 · ESTIMATE: 5) · Data snapshot: August 3, 2026