Thesis: WTI crude at $84.48/bbl has corrected sharply from the $90-92 mid-July range as OPEC+ quota breaches shift the global oil outlook from deficit to potential surplus. Easing Middle East geopolitical risks triggered long liquidation, with prices down -5.41% in a single session (Jul 26). The fundamental picture is split: upstream supply is returning (Hormuz recovery, OPEC+ increases, record US output) while Cushing inventories at ~19.4M bbl near tank-bottom levels provide a physical floor. The Fed meeting Jul 28-29 and OPEC+ August quota decision are the immediate catalysts. Procurement posture: DEFENSIVE — maintain core hedges but reduce tactical long exposure until the supply normalization trajectory clarifies.