WTI Crude Intelligence Report

WTI crude at $84.04/bbl has reversed sharply from the $69 low of early July as the US-Iran ceasefire collapsed and the Strait of Hormuz was effectively re-closed. Trump declared the MOU "over" on Jul 9 after three tanker attacks; the US reinstated a naval blockade of Iranian ports on Jul 13. WTI surged 22% in three weeks — the fastest rally since the initial war spike in February. Cushing inventories at 20.0M bbl remain near multi-year lows. The bull case (Hormuz escalation extending through Q3) now dominates at ~40% probability. Buyers should lock NOW: shift floating to fixed for Q3, hedge 40% of Q4 volume at current $80-84 levels.