WTI Crude Intelligence Report

WTI crude at $74.62/bbl has corrected 35% from the April peak as Hormuz reopening and OPEC+ unwinding reshape supply expectations. The EIA's July STEO slashed its Q3 Brent forecast by $27/bbl to $74, reflecting the speed of normalization. Yet the physical market remains in deficit: US commercial inventories at 411M bbl are 7.6% below year-ago levels, and Cushing at 19.6M bbl is still near multi-year lows. The bear case (full Hormuz reopening + OPEC+ 2.2M bpd unwinding by September) dominates at ~45% probability. Buyers should maintain opportunistic posture: partial hedges on dips below $65, protective puts for downside exposure.