WTI Crude Oil Intelligence Report

Thesis: WTI crude remains elevated near $90/bbl as the Strait of Hormuz disruption enters its fourth month, but the market is transitioning from acute deficit to a softening trajectory. US crude inventories have drawn ~64mb since late February, Cushing stocks near operational minimum, and the NYMEX curve is in extreme backwardation (Dec-26 ~$11 below prompt). However, with EIA projecting Brent to ease from $106 in Q2 to $89 in Q4 and $79 in 2027 as flows resume, the medium-term path is lower. A durable ceasefire remains the single largest downside catalyst; renewed escalation the primary upside risk.