Wood pulp markets in mid-August 2026 show a failed July rebound: SHFE pulp fell to 4,608 CNY/t (Aug 11, -10.94% YoY) as China port destocking stalled and shifted to restocking (2.281M t, +0.1% WoW). Softwood (NBSK) remains oversupplied — global producer inventories at 42 days, BSK at 46 days (April, PPPC). NA NBSK list $1,577/mt; EU list $1,655/mt (+$37 QoQ); China net $658/t (-$27 QoQ). The supply-side inflection is now visible: Canfor Northwood -300kt NBSK closes late Q4 2026, Domtar Crofton -380kt already removed, Metsä Fibre Joutseno downtime up to 90 days Sept-Jan. Mercer and Globe and Mail both expect NBSK tightening into 2027. EU PPWR became enforceable August 12 — structural fiber demand support now live. Near-term demand stays weak through Q3; the buying window on softwood weakness is finite. The procurement call: opportunistic now, hedged before Q4 closures land.
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