Wood pulp markets remain in divergence through early July 2026: softwood (NBSK) faces persistent structural oversupply at 46 days of producer inventory, while hardwood (BHK) stays below the 42-day balance point. NBSK list prices hold at $1,570/mt (unchanged MoM), but SHFE pulp futures have weakened further to 4,640 CNY/t — a -6.7% decline over the past month and -8.8% YoY, reflecting deepening bearishness in Chinese demand. Global producer inventories at 42 days remain elevated for softwood. China port inventories edged up to 2.334M tonnes (+1.6%), signaling persistent supply pressure. US NBSK spot has slipped to $680-710/t delivered. The procurement call: opportunistic on softwood (delay term commitments, capture further SHFE downside), defensive on hardwood. Realized mill closures (Stora Enso Skutskär -100kt/y) provide a tightening counterweight but are insufficient to shift the near-term balance. Prices expected to grind lower through Q3 2026.
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