Thesis: TTF holds at EUR 58.74/MWh — 37% above the June low but 7.6% below the July 24 peak — as Europe's weakest storage refill season in 15 years meets a single binary event: whether a US-Iran deal reopens the Strait of Hormuz before winter. Qatar's force majeure extends through September with 24 cargoes affected and a second tanker struck on August 1; EU storage at 57.15% sits 11-12 percentage points below the seasonal norm with injection pace slipping below target; and Norway's Ormen Lange field runs curtailed 40% until February 2027. The bearish offset is US LNG export growth and deal-nearing reports that could return Qatari cargoes to Europe by early Q4. For gas buyers, DEFENSIVE guidance: hedge winter 2026/27 at EUR 54 to 58 while the futures curve still prices normalization, cap coverage at 70-75%, and model both sides of the deal outcome — a confirmed reopening corrects TTF toward EUR 44 to 50, a failed deal retests EUR 65 to 70.
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