Thesis: TTF prices have surged 39% in three weeks to €59.66/MWh as the market reprices the outlook for Qatar LNG supply — QatarEnergy paused its ramp-up after the July 7 Hormuz tanker attack, prioritizing security over speed, and has now withheld cargoes for four consecutive months. TTF has fully reversed the April-June ceasefire correction and now trades near its March crisis peak of €60.3/MWh. The rally is driven by three reinforcing forces: the Qatar risk premium has re-expanded after the government decided to run at minimum safe operations; JKM spot LNG surged to $21.03/MMBtu (up 32.6% over the month and 75.5% YoY), pulling TTF higher via cargo competition; and EU storage at 51.8% (July 12) remains 15.7 percentage points below the 5-year seasonal norm despite modestly improved injection pace (+0.26 pp/day from +0.19 in early July). Bearish pressure from US LNG supply growth (+7% in 2026 per IEA, feedgas at a record 17.4 Bcf/d) is insufficient to offset the structural supply gap left by Qatar's protracted outage. For gas buyers, the DEFENSIVE stance intensifies: the window to hedge at current levels is closing as forward curve backwardation implies the market itself expects a future decline — but that decline depends on Qatar returning, which becomes less certain by the week.
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