TTF natural gas settled at €41.77/MWh on June 17, extending the post-Hormuz correction as US-Iran peace talks progress toward a June 19 signing. Prompt prices have declined 16% from the early-June peak of €49.8/MWh, reflecting easing LNG supply fears. EU storage stands at 42.79% full — 8.6pp below last year and tracking behind the relaxed 80% November target. The forward curve implies a modest ~€1/MWh winter premium. GS forecasts 2H26 at €41/MWh with downside to €30 by 2027 as the LNG wave arrives. The base case favors €35-45 through H2 2026, with upside risk from extended Hormuz disruption or a hot European summer. FACT
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