TTF natural gas settled at €47.61/MWh on June 2, down 3% from the prior close, as the March spike to €61.85 continues to unwind. EU gas storage stands at an estimated 55-60% full entering the refill season — a comfortable starting position after a mild winter. However, the permanent loss of Russian transit through Ukraine (~15 bcm/yr since January 1, 2026) and the need to refill to the 90% November target creates a structural floor near €35-40. LNG cargoes remain the marginal source of supply, competing with Asian buyers for summer deliveries. The market is pricing a base case of €40-55 through Q3.
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