Tin is correcting from its June all-time high of $57,960/mt as near-term supply improves and exchange inventories build. LME stocks at 8,600t are up 60% YTD, the cash-3M spread is in contango at $225/t, and global mine production is forecast to grow 8.7%. Yet the structural scarcity thesis remains intact: Indonesia tightened export quotas to 50,000t for 2026, Myanmar's Wa State restart is stalling, and AI-driven electronics demand is projected to triple by 2030. The market is pricing future tightness, not present shortage. ESTIMATE