Market diagnosis: Tin prices at $53,200/mt reflect a market balancing near-term supply normalization against structural scarcity expectations. Indonesia's mining crackdown and Myanmar's slow Man Maw recovery have removed ~26,000 t/year of supply, while AI-driven electronics demand and solar growth underpin structural consumption increases of 2-3% annually. Exchange inventories have rebuilt to ~20,000 t from October lows of 11,000 t, but the forward curve has shifted from backwardation to near-contango, signaling easing near-term tightness. This report provides procurement-specific guidance with quantified scenario analysis, cost impact modeling, and forward contract recommendations.