Stainless Steel Intelligence Report

Market diagnosis: Stainless steel 304 CR coil is consolidating near $2,015/mt FOB China, with a slight upward tilt as LME nickel breaks above $17,000/mt on Indonesia's quota discipline and the start of the Philippine monsoon season. Indonesia's ESDM confirmed (Jul 10) that 2026 quotas will stay at 250-260M wet tons, removing the bearish easing scenario. LME nickel inventories are declining for six consecutive sessions, signaling tightening physical conditions. However, combined exchange stocks remain historically high (~375,000 t) and Western demand is modest, capping near-term upside. The EU safeguard restructuring (effective Jul 1) is reshaping trade flows, cutting CRC quotas 53%. Procurement posture: defensive — adequate near-term supply, but the risk asymmetry is shifting toward tighter conditions by Q4.