BUYER: DEFENSIVE
Market diagnosis: Stainless steel 304 CR coil is consolidating near $1,990/mt FOB China after a Q1 surge to $2,080/mt. LME nickel at $16,850/mt provides the cost floor, but record combined inventories (~468,600 t) and abundant Indonesian NPI supply cap the upside. The EU steel safeguard restructuring (July 1, 2026) cuts CRC import quotas by 53%, reshaping European trade flows. Procurement posture: defensive — adequate supply, no urgency to lock long-term volume, but monitor Indonesia NPI policy for Q3 catalysts.
304 CR Coil FOB China
$1,990/mt
ESTIMATE (assessment-based)
LME Nickel
$16,850/mt
+9.19% YoY
304 vs 316L Premium
+25-40%
Moly-driven premium holds
LME Ni Inventories
~274,000 t
Multi-year high
All 304/316L pricing is assessment-based · Data as of July 21, 2026
FACT: 12 sources · ESTIMATE: 10 sources · SPECULATION: 0