Stainless Steel Intelligence Report

Stainless steel markets remain rangebound as the structural nickel cost floor ($17,500-18,000/mt LME) is tested against a ~380K mt LME stock overhang that limits upside. Indonesia's NPI supply discipline — Eramet halting Weda Bay production after exhausting its 12M tonne RKAB quota — has removed ~40K mt/month of contained nickel from the stainless feedstock chain. But the ~380K mt LME stockpile (off its ~400K peak but still 6x pre-2023 normal) and SHFE inventories that have doubled YTD signal the surplus has not yet cleared. The EU safeguard overhaul on July 1 (quotas cut from 33M to 18M mt, above-quota tariff rising to 50%) is the next major catalyst: it tightens European supply and supports EUR stainless pricing. The EU-US trade deal approved June 16 offers tariff relief for US goods but leaves steel safeguards intact. Procurement posture is DEFENSIVE: lock European H2 volume before July 1; buy 304 coil dips to $1,150/mt FOB; monitor Indonesia RKAB policy as the single most powerful swing factor.